[SMM Daily Review] Waiting for steel bidding to be finalized, market remains stable

On May 20, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,000-8,100 yuan/mt (50% metal content), unchanged from the previous trading day. The ferrochrome market operated smoothly during the day, with general inquiry sentiment and limited actual transactions. As the steel procurement tender for the next month approaches, market changes are limited, with most participants waiting and watching. The mainstream view remains focused on flat pricing, with a small portion expecting a slight increase, and factories showing low willingness to adjust prices. In terms of ferrochrome supply, China's total imports of high-carbon ferrochrome in April 2024 were 253,600 mt, down 12% MoM and 35.8% YoY. The main influencing factor was the decrease in the supply of chrome ore from South Africa, which fell 22% MoM to 135,300 mt. Considering that Merafe announced the suspension of smelting operations at two ferrochrome plants in May, it is expected that the volume of imported ferrochrome in May will further decrease, which will alleviate the supply surplus of ferrochrome caused by the rapid increase in domestic ferrochrome production to a certain extent. It is expected that the ferrochrome market will remain stable in the short term.

In terms of raw materials, the chrome ore market remained stable during the day, with inquiry enthusiasm rebounding somewhat, but actual purchase activity remained poor. On May 19, 2025, the spot cargo offer for 40-42% South African powder at Tianjin Port was 61-62 yuan/mtu, with futures prices at 290-300 US dollars/mt; the offer for 48-50% Zimbabwean powder was 62-63 yuan/mtu, with futures prices at 350-360 US dollars/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Influenced by favourable macro policies, inquiry sentiment for chrome ore has risen, but at this stage, most participants are consuming their own inventories, and actual demand remains limited. In addition, as the market expects stability or even an increase in the steel procurement tender for the next month, traders' confidence has been supported, and chrome ore prices have remained stable.